The Kumbh Mela 2025 is one of India’s grandest religious festivals, commencing on Monday, attracts millions of devotees from around the globe. Reports indicate that over 4 million people have already taken a holy dip at the Sangam shore. Pilgrims, both Indian and international, flock to the event believing that a dip in the sacred Ganga River purifies the soul and grants liberation from the cycle of rebirth. However, an intriguing topic arises around this festival—the curious phenomenon of stock market dips during this time. Historical data reveals a consistent trend: the stock market, particularly the Sensex, has faced significant downturns during Kumbh Mela celebrations for the last two decades. Let’s delve into the data to understand this anomaly better.
Understanding Sensex Declines During Kumbh Mela
According to a recent analysis by Samco Securities, the behavior of the Indian stock market during the Kumbh Mela period has been notably peculiar. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at Samco Securities, examined the market performance during six instances of Kumbh Mela celebrated in the last 20 years. The report indicates a consistent pattern: the BSE’s benchmark index, Sensex, has recorded negative returns from the commencement to the conclusion of these festivals.
Historical Declines of Sensex During Kumbh Mela
The most significant decline in the Sensex was observed during the Kumbh Mela in 2015, where the index dropped by 8.3% from July to September 2015. Following this record, the second-highest decline occurred during Kumbh Mela in April 2021, with a 4.2% dip. In contrast, the least decline was noted in 2010, where it fell by just 1.2%. The following table summarizes the performance of Sensex during these historical Kumbh Melas:
| Kumbh Mela Start Date | Kumbh Mela End Date | Sensex Return (Percentage) |
| April 5, 2004 | May 4, 2004 | -3.3 |
| January 14, 2010 | April 28, 2010 | -1.2 |
| January 14, 2013 | March 11, 2013 | -1.3 |
| July 14, 2015 | September 28, 2015 | -8.3 |
| April 22, 2016 | May 23, 2016 | -2.4 |
| April 1, 2021 | April 19, 2021 | -4.2 |
Positive Returns After Six Months
Interestingly, Apurva Sheth highlights that following the Kumbh Mela, the Sensex frequently recovers, with 5 out of 6 instances showing positive returns within six months. On average, the returns have been approximately 8%. The most significant rally was observed after the 2021 Kumbh Mela, where the Sensex surged nearly 29%. Below is a table detailing the performance of the Sensex six months post each Kumbh Mela:
| Six Months After Kumbh Mela | Sensex Return (Percentage) |
| 2004 | 1 |
| 2010 | 16.8 |
| 2013 | 1.8 |
| 2015 | -2.5 |
| 2016 | 2.1 |
| 2021 | 28.8 |
Potential Reasons Behind Market Behavior
Experts suggest multiple factors could contribute to the stock market’s erratic behavior during the Kumbh Mela. Historical poor performance may lead investors to adopt a more cautious approach during this period. For instance, during the recent trading session on Monday, the Sensex witnessed a decline of over 800 points, reflecting a drop of more than 1%, currently trading at approximately 76,677.06 points. Analyzing past trends indicates that further declines could occur as the Kumbh Mela event progresses.